The "China’s Economic Outlook: High-Quality Development at the Core" sub-forum takes place at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China’s Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People’s Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)
Scholars and policy experts gathered at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference on Tuesday, March 24 for a sub-forum titled "China’s Economic Outlook: High-Quality Development at the Core" to discuss China’s economic trajectory, zeroing in on what "high-quality development" means in practice under the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).
The session, moderated by Huang Yiping, dean of Peking University’s National School of Development, brought together four heavyweights: former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin, former State Council Vice Secretary-General Jiang Xiaojuan, Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public of Policy of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at Italy’s Ministry of Economic Development.
Innovation as the foundation
Lin opened by laying out the theoretical underpinning of high-quality development, arguing that China’s five development concepts— innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and shared benefits — can only be realized if each concept is pursued in accordance with local characteristics.
Justin Yifu Lin, former World Bank chief economist speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China’s Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People’s Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)
When enterprises develop along lines of local characteristics, Lin argued, they gain market competitiveness and the financial resilience to comply with environmental standards, create employment, and contribute to income redistribution, allowing all five development concepts to be achieved simultaneously.
On the GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026, Lin acknowledged the figure reflects both China’s untapped potential and real external constraints. "As long as no major unexpected events occur, achieving 4.5 to 5 percent growth, or even higher, is entirely possible," he said.
The 15th Five-Year Plan’s new emphases
Jiang offered a close reading of what distinguishes the current five-year plan from its predecessors. On innovation, she said the focus is shifting toward total factor productivity, not just nurturing new industries, but using new technologies to upgrade traditional ones. "The 15th Five-Year Plan places equal weight on new industries and on applying new technology to transform existing sectors," she said. "That is the most important meaning of new quality productive forces."
On openness, Jiang noted a structural shift: China’s industrial capacity has reached a level where its trade with developed economies is transitioning from complementary to horizontal competition, competing in the same product categories and quality tiers.
On consumption, Jiang identified it as the weakest link in the current growth model. "Supply is strong, demand is weak — consumption is currently the most important limiting factor," she said, adding that the new plan would direct greater policy effort toward the demand side.
China’s place in a changing world
Zheng argued that the 15th Five-Year Plan carries global significance precisely because it offers a form of institutional certainty in an era of geopolitical volatility. With China expected to contribute around 30 percent of global growth over the next decade, the plan is not merely a domestic blueprint but a stabilizing signal for the world economy.
Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public of Policy of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China’s Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People’s Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)
Zheng also put forward the concept of China’s "open-source modernization," a development path that, unlike earlier Western models, seeks to extend the ladder of development to others rather than pull it up. "China’s Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure investments, and industrial cooperation are helping developing countries build what they need," he said, arguing this represents a fundamentally different and more equitable model of globalization.
A view from Europe
Geraci offered an outside perspective, cautioning against Western misreadings of China’s strategic intent. China’s push for technological self-reliance, he said, should not be interpreted as isolationism. "China is not closing its doors, it is seeking trade on equal and mutually beneficial terms."
Michele Geraci, former undersecretary of state at Italy’s Ministry of Economic Development speaks at the Boao Forum for Asia 2026 Annual Conference in Boao, south China’s Hainan Province, March 24, 2026. (People’s Daily Online/Cai Hairuo)
For foreign businesses seeking to engage with China, his advice was direct: read the five-year plan. "Don’t ask what you can offer, ask what China needs. So if you are a foreign company and you do semiconductors, come to China. If you’re a football player, stay in Europe."
Looking ahead, Geraci was bullish on China’s innovation trajectory, pointing to advances in areas such as lithography, biopharmaceuticals, and new energy as evidence that China has already entered the first tier of global technological competition. "In the next five to six years," he said, "China will be a leader."
原文地址：http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0325/c90000-20439990.html